More from Bali and the feasibility of 25 cores in Australia

Kevin Rudd has arrived in Bali. See the below ABC reports:

Rudd arrives in Bali amid obstruction accusations

Emissions must be halved, say scientists (video)

Rudd stands firm on emissions target announcement

Australia/Rudd is still accepting raps on the back for signing Kyoto, but it looks as if our 15 minutes of enviro-fame have nearly expired. I hope I am wrong - but it doesn't appear Australia will be doing much about emissions for the next half year - at least not from a policy perspective. Without policy direction, the big changes such as where utilities invest to address increasing demand, how they mitigate the resulting business risks, etc. are essentially stalled.

What are the scientists, IPCC, UN, etc. saying about inaction???

But some action is still possible. Along with the continued support of renewables, efficiency and conservation; we can continue the expansion of domestic uranium mining, aggressively support innovative nuclear technology developments and even accelerate work on our own list of relevant nuclear infrastructure prerequisites. New nuclear capacity doesn't have to be built specifically in Australia to have a positive impact on the global energy to emissions ratio. Australia must support the efforts of other, well positioned countries to reignite/accelerate their nuclear programs. After the first few dozen have been constructed and commissioned, we will be ready for a few of our own.

Is it inconceivable that Australia could have 25 commercial nuclear power reactors in 43 years?

Ponder this: prior to 1954, just 53 years ago, humanity hadn't generated a single electron from nuclear generated heat. Today the world has 439 operable reactors with another 34 being constructed. 1984, seeing the most connections to the grid [that are still operating today] at 33 worldwide.

But while technically feasible, is it likely? Yes, but not anytime soon, unless Australia ceases to be a democracy. Public opinion may have shown recent signs of warming, but there are some loud anti-nuclear voices here that seem to spawn in an environment of colossal public misinformation and ignorance. But there is hope in Bali [and by that I mean the ongoing process that has begun in Bali]. Kevin Rudd has just been elected, but is coming off as somewhat right of the current enviro-political centre. Already Rudd's been leapfrogged by the very environmental groups that were lambasting Howard just a few weeks ago.

Ongoing change is a certainty. We haven't even begun to solve the problem yet [emission levels not only continue to rise, but at an increasing rate!!]. Dramatic action is only a matter of time. Eventually the laws of physics will have asserted themselves to an adequate degree and the more flexible 'laws' of economics and politics, not to mention the omnipresent public opinion, will have to abide. It never works the other way-round. Australia may have to waste a bit more time and resources to develop an understanding of the concept, but we will get there.

Ol' King Coal

I read a news article recently where the author equated selling coal to dealing drugs or pimping a prostitute, "If I don't sell it, they'll just get if from someone else." I wish I could find it to give them credit - but for now I can only admit the metaphor belongs to someone else.

Averaging 100 tonnes each, running day and night

The point is, planet earth is addicted to fossil fuels - and coal is our vice of choice. Quick, cheap and easy, always giving us exactly what we need - the way we like it. Australia is the, "How can I fix you up tonight?", Pimp-Daddy, King of Coal. We are the world's 4th largest coal producer [behind China, USA and India] and top-dog at dishin' it out, exporting 231 Mt [I believe that's million tonnes] in 2006. Our closest trade competitor is Indonesia, who pushed barely half our weight at 129 Mt. Our per-capita impact on the world coal market and subsequent emissions generation is [should be]... sobering.

I invite all to peruse the World Coal Institute's web page, in particular Coal Facts 2007. It's interesting information - 8.8% worldwide increase in hard coal production from 2005 to 2006 [to 5370 Mt]. I wonder where humanity will end up for 2007.

Finally, have a look at this map. Is it any reason Australia is painted black? Look at how exports are predicted to change over the next quarter century.

How much energy is involved just to move that material around the globe?

One uranium fuel pellet, contains the equivalent energy to a 100 tonne rail car full of coal (considerably more if reprocessed)

By contrast, according to the AUA/UIC, Australia exported 7593 tonnes U [or 0.007593 MtU] in 2006. These exports contributed significantly [19% of worldwide uranium production in 2006] to emissions free, safe and 24/7 reliable electricity generation from nuclear power.

Renewables being given their shot and news from Bali

According to this ABC report worldwide investment in renewables will achieve a record breaking $114b this year.

Despite this, participants in the ongoing UN climate conference in Bali are [depending on their representation] calling for much more significant cuts and again here [science, environmental groups] or taking a more cautions approach in consideration of economic and political fallout [trade ministers and other politicians]. The ABC alone is rife with articles from all perspectives.

Of local interest, New Zealand has already sided with the EU in calling for mandatory cuts of between 25 to 40% of 1990 emission levels by 2020. This call was echoed by non-politically affiliated Australian representatives at Bali, but pushed back by Crean and Rudd along with Canada, the USA and Japan.

But this is the beginning and hopefully just some initial posturing for future negotiations. The diversity of perspective and interest certainly justifies why the negotiations have commenced now for an agreement to take affect in a bit more than 4 years. They've certainly got their work cut out for them.

It would seem, again despite the investment sited above, the world needs something with a bigger punch to meet the emission cut targets while preserving economic security.

Nuclear power packs a wallop.

Fatih Birol Presents the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007

A very informative post at The Oil Drum [link below].

Fatih Birol Presents the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007

Emphasis on conservation and efficiency having an effect

Albeit not the effect hoped for by many.

In a previous post I included a link about the paradox of efficiency etc.

In practical terms, when an uninformed and misled public protests the construction of new generation facilities - while maintaining or increasing state/national energy demand - something has got to give.

This phenomenon would seem to be manifesting itself in another recent post on energy price increases in South Australia and Victoria as well as this article from the Australian on the current energy squeeze in Queensland.

This time it's not just higher prices, but decreasing reserve capacity [meaning the energy being generated beyond the 100% needed by all of us to run our AC units, not to mention all the heavy industry loads, etc.]. Per the report, the reserve dropped to record lows and the wholesale price for electricity reached the maximum of $10,000 per megawatt hour for supplies into the national electricity grid from Queensland. This, despite the recent start-up of our latest coal munching, carbon spewer, Kogan Creek.

Look for ongoing pressure for added electrical capacity and further utility pressure on the government to get decisive on climate change related regulations. This of course will be running parallel with ongoing international and domestic pressure for Australian emissions cuts.

Yet another perspective on the modern energy crisis where doing nothing / waiting involves considerable risk.

Have I mentioned that one AREVA EPR can reliably generate 1650 MWe, with one of the lowest lifecycle carbon emissions around?

Oh, and AREVA has just initiated construction of their second EPR - this one in France. Italy - buying a 12.5% stake in this project has found an innovative way to get around a 1987 anti-nuclear referendum.

AREVA's also sold a couple more EPRs to China in the largest nuclear sale ever.

2020 Targets not looking good for Australia

As reported in the Australian.

25 to 40% reduction targets [by 2020] are being thrown around in Bali. If undertaken, Australia would have to endure significant stress to achieve them, including, among many things, significant price increases for energy and energy intense products.

Yeah, it's starting to seem like there's always another 'report' just around the corner that will contain the long anticipated climate change elixir. However, like many others I'm sure... I eagerly anticipate the report from Ross Garnaut and the array of reactions [including, I hope, so tangible actions] that follow.

As always, nuclear power could help achieve emissions reductions. Waiting, however only compounds our problems.

Kyoto Ratified

Unless you've been living under a rock, you will already know Kevin Rudd has committed Australia to Kyoto. (more from WNN)

This is the first of many steps - not only for rationalising Australian emissions to a justifiable level in the context of global development, but also towards the education of many that Australian goals can not be reached without nuclear.

Ethics, accuracy and Ziggy Switkowski

Ziggy Switkowski penned this piece for the Age. In it Ziggy asks a lot more questions then he tries to answer and in so doing, puts forth a passive argument for Australia's technology development and export in lieu of working to decrease domestic emissions linked to climate change. He also uses a very poor analogy - population increase - to frame his argument. Sure population increase is a significant challenge in many countries. But it is principally a local problem. It is sometimes difficult to find the linkage between overpopulation in sub-Saharan Africa and life on an Australian beach. However according to the climate experts, it is nearly impossible to break the link between the world's coal plants and bleaching coral in the Whitsundays, increasing Australian farm failures and ever tightening water restrictions.

This argument, that Australia could help the most through high-profile technology development, may be 'technically correct' - any country that cracks the code for clean-coal technology will undoubtedly have a tremendous impact on global emissions. Ditto for any other cheap, no/low emissions form of energy production. But the global confidence in this is not high as indicated by the lack of its projected deployment in the recent World Energy Outlook report. Ziggy also repeats a somewhat common argument about Australia's small population and relatively small emissions [which aren't really 'that' small - only 6 countries on the planet crank out more CO2 from electricity production]. But is this argument - and the actions/in-actions associated with it 'right'? Is it moral? Is it ethical? Is it sustainable?

As I have said repeatedly, I believe the clear answer is a certain and obvious - NO. How can we expect other countries [big or small] to take actions, pay costs, endure risks, make sacrifices that we, Australia, will not? As it stands, we are the international poster-society for good living through low cost, high emissions based power. For those seeking our lifestyle, why would they consider any tactics other than our own?

Furthermore, Australia has motivation beyond occupancy of the moral and ethical high-ground to lead the effort to reduce emissions. Unlike many of the other top emitters [such as USA, China, Russia, India, Japan, and Germany] Australia is already seeing the effects of climate change and, according to many, the situation only stands to get worse. In this case, as in most others, leadership means going first, assuming the point and motivating through courage, action and achievement.

At the moment, I think this crown can not be claimed by Australia, but rather California in the USA. Arnold et. Co. have committed to attain 1990 emission levels by 2020 and further reduce them by a staggering 80% [of 1990 levels] by 2050 [ref UN 2007 Human Development Report, Table 3.1, pg 114 and box 3.1, pg 116].

Australia must make a difference globally - and this means driving the herd.

Energy Squeeze for SA & VIC

Electricity prices in South Australia will rise nearly 7% from January 1 according to this report from ABC.

The drought has reduced hydro generation and is impacting power stations that use rivers / fresh water for their cooling.

In Victoria, prices could increase by up to 17.6% as the more expensive gas plants are fired up to cover losses in hydro generation.

This can't be good for emissions reduction efforts. Gas is better than coal, but far worse than hydro or - dare I say it - nuclear.

Nuclear news from around the Commonwealth

Canada has agreed to join the GNEP (WNN article). This could be a boost to the GNEP programme. Perhaps with Kevin Rudd's crushing defeat of Howard, Canada was able to negotiate the deal they wanted for entry. The real item of interest is the 'review' of AECL. It appears AECL may be getting itself caught up in the furry of sales and mergers occurring within the industry. CANDU reactors are positioned well to 'digest' nuclear waste products and could become very popular in the future. I guess it [buying, selling, changing hands, etc.] comes with the territory of such an industry and I really do hope things work our for them.

Meanwhile in South Africa, the local utility, Eskom is reported here to be running on 5 to 10% reserve margin [not a lot, this results in load-shedding, or turning people's lights out for them]. They are considering MASSIVE nuclear expansion, ~20 plants in 18 years!

When accused of not considering other no/low carbon alternatives, the utility argued:

...while nuclear is expensive to build, it is vastly cheaper to operate, and, at this stage, provides the only true low-carbon alternative to coal.

For this reason, rightly or wrongly, its attention is now shifting strongly from the debates about nuclear to strategies that will ensure that these new facilities are delivered on time and budget. A job made doubly challenging by the fact that few nuclear facilities have been built globally over the last few decades, but the appetite has certainly grown, which has the potential to divert the attention of the vendors involved.