The projected cost of the German nuclear phase-out

Germany is seeking an increase in their carbon emissions as they ponder their nuclear phase out option.

Full report from the WNN

According to Handlesblatt, the closure of all 17 nuclear reactors in Germany and their replacement with other energy sources would result in 150 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

[Gee, I wonder if the replacement power will come from coal, cole or kowl? Come on guys, where are the big renewable energy deployments? These transitions are supposed to be no-brainers.]

That's about 73% of Australia's total emissions from electricity generation. Who says nuclear power can't make a significant dent in our emissions?

The ACF / Ian Lowe made such claims only 9 short months ago and I did my best to refute them.

"There are few, very few, that will own themselves in a mistake."

- Swift.

WA turns to coal in an energy pinch

Western Australia's gas supply crisis has hit power retailer Synergy which has been forced to sign a supply deal for coal fired energy.

Details reported by ABC.

According to the CARMA database, Western Australia's carbon intensity [Pounds of CO2 emitted per megawatt-hour of electricity produced] is slightly better then Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales.

However to meet growing energy demand, Synergy has signed deals for 200 megawatts of coal capacity from the proposed Bluewater Two project in Collie and another 330 megawatts of electricity from a proposed gas fired power station to be built in Neerabup, north of Perth.

Synergy's Managing Director Jim Mitchell

"We basically went to coal because it provided our customers with the most cost effective solution from both a security of supply point of view, a price point of view and an environmental point of view" he said.

I wonder what, exactly, was the less environmental option being considered?

The WA government has been quick to back up the utility. Saying greenhouse targets will be met.

The Energy Minister Fran Logan

"Our footprint here in Western Australia is far better than it is in the eastern states," he said.

"Sixty per cent of all power generated in Western Australia is generated by gas. Eighty per cent of power generated in the eastern states is by coal."

I wouldn't say it is 'far' better, WA's carbon intensity is nearly 90% that of Victoria and Queensland and 99% that of New South Wales. Building more coal plants doesn't sound like a path to improvement.

Chris Tallentire of the Conservation Council also thinks this move is a backwards step.

"This power station is old technology," he said.

"We should not be going ahead with a new coal fired power station when we can possibly wait for newer technology to come online in say five to ten years."

5 to 10 years is in the neighborhood of feasible nuclear power deployment in Australia.

These decisions highlight a basic contradiction. While renewable targets will be met - golden halos all around - the quality and reliability of renewable sources alone fail to provide the security of supply required to satisfy increasing demand. [And yes, demand continues to increase albeit at a somewhat slower rate in the best case implementation scenarios for conservation and efficiency improvement programmes.] Over reliance on renewables, conservation and efficiency, along with increasing natural gas prices as mentioned in the report, means more coal power stations. Taking nuclear out of the discussion ensures WA and Australia will remain on this path for the foreseeable future.

Kogan Creek, the reality of Australian energy policy

Despite the compact florescent bulbs in the shops and homes of Australia; Chinchilla, in Peter Beattie's, Kevin Rudd's and now Anna Bligh's Queensland, is about to become home to the Kogan Creek power station with the following statistics from the CS Energy and CARMA websites:

Generation capacity: 750 MW (about the same as a medium size nuclear power station, or maybe about 300* large wind turbines). Kogan will be the largest single generating unit in Australia!!

*[NOTE: To actually 'produce' the equivalent of a 750 MW coal station, one would require approximately 1,250 large [2 MW] wind turbines to account for the fact that the wind doesn't always blow as well as the limitations of existing storage technology].

Cost: $1.2 billion

Anticipated commissioning date: late 2007. Construction and commissioning timeline has been about three and a half years.

Anticipated operation: 24 hrs a day, 7 days a week, devouring coal at a whopping rate of 2.8 million t/yr [or nearly 7,700 t/day].

CO2 emissions: 4,339,799 tons [imperial] per year

This one station will INCREASE Australian emissions from electricity generation by nearly 2%.

CARMA's big Greens

I am enjoying the new CARMA database that I recently discovered and posted just a few days ago. Apparently I'm not the only one, database access all but stooped the day of its official launch. That's great news, and the development team has done well to quickly restore performance.

Just one of the MANY interesting data slices - for me - is an examination of the 'big greens', those [typically developed, or otherwise quite large] countries that generate a significant quantity of energy without significant emissions.

Countries sorted by MWh energy [generated]

1. France - No surprise, the first on the list, generates 565 Million MWh of energy using 75.9% nuclear, 9.16% hydro and 1.76% other renewables. Energy carbon intensity: 162.

2. Brazil - generates 423 Million MWh of energy using 2.34% nuclear, 84.73% hydro and 5.36% other renewables. Energy carbon intensity: 113.

[By the way, Australia fits in here on the list at 195 million MWh, just ahead of Sweden. We are the world's 18th largest electric energy producer, but we are not even in the top 50 by population. Our energy carbon intensity? 2,318.]

3. Sweden - generates 170 Million MWh of energy using 40.32% nuclear, 42.35% hydro and 3.38% other renewables. Energy carbon intensity: 41.

4. Norway - generates 137 Million MWh of energy using 0% nuclear, 98.82% hydro and 0.77% other renewables. Energy carbon intensity: 3.

5. Switzerland - generates 55.8 Million MWh of energy using 39.43% nuclear, 55.76% hydro and 0.38% other renewables. Energy carbon intensity: 11.

This again demonstrates what many have been saying for some time. The only credible, demonstrated technologies capable of displacing fossil generation on the scale required to significantly reduce the relevant emissions are hydro and nuclear.

We can also see what a significant outlier Australia is when it comes to emissions per-capita or even emissions per unit GDP. We are on shaky ground at best.